National Weather Service Miami FL
219pm EDT Monday Jun 17 2024
...New Long Term
.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 119pm EDT Monday Jun 17 2024
A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000 j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches) over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this evening.
Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon, with generally 30-40% Probability of Precipitation elsewhere. Breezy east winds will continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today.
As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly, although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast.
Long Term
(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 218pm EDT Monday Jun 17 2024
Main feature to watch for the middle to end of the week will be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. This feature has a low end chance of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. The few ensemble members that do show a surface low developing later this week have it N/NE of our forecast area, but it will still be worth keeping an eye on. Regardless of development, an increase in moisture is expected across South FL late week into the weekend, which will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast. Overall Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals over the next 7 days (1-2 inches) aren't impressive for this time of year, but given wet antecedent conditions in place will need to monitor closely as any heavy rain over the urban areas may cause some issues.
High temperatures from mid week through the weekend will be around seasonal norms thanks to persistent easterly flow, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 close to the coasts.
Marine
Issued at 119pm EDT Monday Jun 17 2024
Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week.
Beaches
Issued at 119pm EDT Monday Jun 17 2024
The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week. Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 2pm EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.
